Gemini 3 METR-reported 50% time horizon
Market Rules
This market predicts the 50% task-completion time horizon (metric for General Autonomous Capabilities, GAC), as defined by METR, for the Gemini 3 family of AI models. It will resolve based on the longest 50% time horizon (in hours) reported by METR for any Gemini 3 model released within 31 days of the first public Gemini 3 announcement (November 18, 2025).
The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is METR's official publications and dashboards that report 50% time horizons for language models, including the materials associated with the 'Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks' work available via metr.org or any direct successor location. The 50% time horizon is the human task duration at which an AI agent built on the model can successfully complete tasks 50% of the time under METR's methodology.
For resolution, METR's reported 50% time horizon for the relevant Gemini 3 model will be converted to hours (from minutes if necessary) and mapped into the intervals described in this market’s outcomes, with left bounds inclusive and right bounds exclusive unless otherwise noted
If by December 31, 2025, METR has not publicly reported a 50% time horizon for any Gemini 3 model meeting the above criteria, or if its publications are unreasonably delayed, internally inconsistent, or retracted, Futuur may cancel the market and refund open positions while leaving past trades unaffected.