Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Israel and the listed countries will formally normalize diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC. For the purpose of this event, normalization means the official establishment of full diplomatic relations, including mutual recognition and the opening or formal commitment to open embassies or equivalent diplomatic missions. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official announcement or joint statement issued by the governments of Israel and/or the countries named in the listed markets confirming full diplomatic normalization.
If official announcements are delayed, unavailable, or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by major international news organizations (such as Reuters, AP, BBC, or Al Jazeera) citing authoritative government sources. Partial normalization, limited agreements, confidence-building measures, or improvements in relations that fall short of full diplomatic ties will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. These markets will be resolved according to the substantive outcome—whether full diplomatic normalization is formally established—rather than minor technicalities of wording or ceremony. If no fair determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.